Ryan Payne appears on Yahoo 8/14

Ryan Payne appears on Yahoo 8/14


Is it time to kind of maybe take a step
back, take a deep breath? Or are there real red flags that we’re seeing because
of the yield curve? I think it’s more the former I mean we’ve seen this before and
the yield curve I mean it could be like 18 months out before you even see a
recession or the market even goes down it’s like would I go on vacation for a
year come back and then look at my portfolio? Also if you look at the late
90s you had 95, 98 and 2000 you had inverted yield curves and the market had a
phenomenal run there so yeah you know I think there’s a lot of weight right now
on that inverted yield curve but I think it’s kind of you know it’s an
overreaction in my opinion. And Ryan you said that you know some of the sell-off that
we’re seeing today is a bit of profit taking I mean you look at what happened
yesterday in the markets we saw a big rally on the back of some tariff relief
is this actually a good opportunity to get in? I mean absolutely like what’s
changed we just talked about the fundamentals I mean look and that’s what
you have to look at right GDP is relatively strong and you know it’s
slower than last year last you had a tax break so it was kind of artificially
engineered to be a bit higher this is the normal growth we’ve had for ten
years now you’ve got in you know got inflation low which is excellent for the
consumer and I think we don’t talk enough about that the consumer is in
like the best shape they’ve been in a very long time they’re not leveraged
like they were before 2007 people actually like paying down debt which is
shocking in America so I think when you look at that and you look at the fact
that this is the second sell off we’ve had this year we haven’t had many
opportunities to actually get into the market like you’ve got to take advantage
of the opportunities they just don’t happen that often. When you look at
sectors one of the biggest decliners on the day our financials which is not
surprising given that we’re seeing the yields come down is this the time to get
in on the big banks I mean they’ve entered correction territory
do you go in now or is the expectation that it’s gonna push even lower? I use
this line too often but if he is a gift from the gods. Because
we’re talking about yields and I mean you look at how meager yields
are on bonds now it’s getting silly and if you look at stocks right now I mean
the yields on financial specifically are so good you’re getting like 3-4%
yields you’ve had a lot of stock buybacks you’ve also had a lot of
increases in on the dividends which will probably continue so a little bit of
weakness and earnings I would say I take advantage of it right now multiples are
very cheap on banks and definitely buy. If you look at the picture
globally I mean the the US Treasury is still yielding much better than
what we’re seeing like the German bund for example, how much
of what we’re seeing in the global picture, the bond picture is distorted
because of central bank buying? I think that’s what started
it but we’re talking about this off set I mean you have
literally almost five hundred billion dollars going to bond funds this year
and so that’s a lot of that’s retail money just being completely irrational
and I start looking at I’m gonna get a negative yield on a German bund and I
could buy like a basket of high dividend paying european stocks paying like
5-6% right now like at some point you have to say this is crazy there
should be some money going into equities here because equities again
are just so cashflow rich.

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