Record Breaking Huge Arctic Outbreak Likely This Weekend – Update #3

Record Breaking Huge Arctic Outbreak Likely This Weekend – Update #3

hello everybody what’s going on here I
am David Schlotthauer here with your third update on the very cold arctic air
we’re seen record-breaking low temperatures and in fact we could see
all-time record low temperatures for the month of November as this could be the
coldest arctic air outbreak in November in a very very long time this is
expected to cover much of the east but before I do get started with the video
though be sure to check out my Dischord the link is in the description below
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notification icon so you get latest detailed updates on my youtube channel
so you get latest push notifications and notifications so we’re gonna start this
video off looking at the gfs since it’s really on top it’s there like the
European and the GFS model are literally right on par with each other and so
that’s why I’ve decided to only show the GFS with this video so this is presented
by tropical tidbits calm also by Levi cow and that runs the website so be sure
to check out his youtube channel and a link in the description to his channel
is listed below so this is for Saturday afternoon and you can clearly see where
the cold air is going to be at this given time on the models we’re seeing
temperatures in the 20s across the Manitoba Saskatchewan the Alberta Canada
and British Columbia this is where the cold air starts and then it’s going to
be sagging southward over the next few days from Sunday a Saturday afternoon
through Sunday Monday and Tuesday we’re seeing some single digits alright get
ready for literally anyone that lives across this area you’re really gonna
feel the big and air temperature all right so for
Sunday morning temperatures you’re gonna wake up to
those overnight lows in the the upper 40s low 40s some mid 20s and teens out
there for Fargo for Grand Forks also for the Minneapolis area hopefully I said
that correctly for Minnesota for northern Wisconsin also for Montana
Wyoming this is where the cold air the coldest air is going to be at this given
time for Sunday November 10th for the Northeast
you got some chilly temperatures but nothing like up here
right at this given time so this progress is into Sunday afternoon and
you can see there’s some single digits getting introduced here for North Dakota
for portions of Minnesota and the freezing mark which is located right
here you can see how far south that’s going to be dipping quickly as that cold
front moves through all right look at these temperatures up here
negative temperatures negative Fahrenheit air temperatures which you
don’t typically see in November right you typically see temperatures right
into the teens this is gonna be way below average like guarantee seeing
those temperatures there in the SAS catch Awan Canada area this is for
Monday morning and again this cold air this cold front you can see a right here
draped across literally the deep south the kind of the Midwest the southeast
it’s located right here this is going to be rapidly moving southward with time
with the coldest air like I said on the back side of this we’re seeing some 20s
out there for Monday morning some teens out there for the Dakotas and single
digits actually in fact for Fargo for North Dakota seeing temperatures there
in the four to zero degree range this cold air is gonna continue for a while
like look at this for Tuesday morning you’re seeing temperatures near freezing
in Central Louisiana Central Texas wow that’s that’s unheard of you
don’t typically see that until like late December early January so it’s
definitely going to be cold this very cold arctic air Iowa single-digit
temperatures overnight Wisconsin probably single-digit temperatures for
Minnesota North Dakota and South Dakota definitely seen the coldest temperatures
with this cold air that’s gonna be sweeping across the area all right so
that’s where the cold air is going to be for Wednesday morning November 13th for
Pennsylvania 4 degrees for the central portion of the state for Syracuse for
New York you’re gonna see temperatures probably in the single digits as well
for Wisconsin for Minnesota definitely seen the cold bite to those temperatures
and think about this there’s gonna be some gusty winds along to go with this
cold air so windchill values will probably be in the negative territory so
be sure to make sure you have your mittens on because your hands are gonna
be very cold right also be sure to bring in the pets the plants and any outdoor
water plumbing could freeze over and could burst so be sure to make sure you
protect any outdoor livestock as this is going to be a very harsh cold outbreak
that you don’t typically see in November all right so that’s for Wednesday
afternoon again temperatures still in the teens in the 20s across the Great
Lakes and the central plains for the Northern Plains it’s definitely gonna be
on the colder side then Thursday morning again you still got very cold
temperatures look at this for the Northeast overnight temperatures
definitely in the single digits maybe for Central New York here maybe I in a
chance of minus 1 degrees so definitely definitely cold for Thursday morning for
the Northeast Nicholas Arthur for many of my viewers that live across this area
please bundle up because you have not seen temperatures this cold in forever
like I don’t recall seeing temperatures this cold ever since I’ve been around so
for my birthday actually while that ends it therefore
November fourteenth my birthday is November 15th so this is 12z so we would
be looking at very cold temperatures on my birthday for Pennsylvania for the
northern tier of the United States so we’re now gonna look at the temperature
anomaly so before we start going through our PowerPoint here okay so the redder
areas okay that is where these below average temperatures are gonna be
indicate well above average so if you look at the scale on the right side I’m
gonna have arrows pointing to that this indicates that temperatures will be
above average in the orange the red the pink the dark red indicates temperatures
well above average now you got the blue up here indicates temperatures well
below average in the light blue the darker blue the pink and then the
beige-ish color the skin beige is color indicating temperatures way below
average record low temperatures typically so you can see as we move
forward with this PowerPoint so this is going to be for Saturday afternoon then
for Sunday morning look at this cold air across the North Dakota South Dakota
Minnesota the Nebraska Iowa Montana northeastern Wyoming Wisconsin you’re
gonna feel the chill out there alright and it’s only gonna get colder this is
for Sunday afternoon look at the beiges color on your screen there that
indicates temperatures probably about 20 to 20 I meant I meant to say 30 to 50
degrees below average okay like really 50 degrees below average you don’t
typically see that so this is going to be really cold alright let’s just point
that out clear to my viewers cold cold cold for these areas for the Dakotas for
Minnesota and Wisconsin alright so this is for Sunday Monday morning this cold
air over spreads the area in like literally that’s this is the most blue I
have ever seen on a computer model in a very long time if
this would have happened in January or February this would have been the
coldest Arctic outbreak ever recorded alright let’s just say that because of
the fact you’re gonna have temperatures probably nearly 50 degrees below average
so you can count on that if this happened in January or February you
would definitely see temperatures probably minus 40 minus 50 degrees
luckily it’s happening in November but still this is new to a lot of people you
don’t see it this early in the season so this is going to be some very very cold
record cold arctic air and the reason for this is because the polar vortex is
really weak so when you got a weak polar vortex
essentially the jet stream is very wavy we got this ridge across the West and
then you got this jet stream that’s gonna be dipping really far south this
is kind of an estimation but this is a very wavy jet stream set up with very
strong troughing across the Great Lakes and then you got ridging across the West
but if the polar vortex was really strong this colder air would be more
confined way to the north more like northern and central Canada and this
colder air would not penetrate into the northern tier of the United States
necessarily so the fact is the polar vortex is really weak and that’s why
these temperatures are going to be exceptionally cold across the Missouri
the the Illinois area the you’re looking at Ohio Indiana the Cincinnati Ohio area
you’re looking at kentucky the tennessee i have viewers such as kandi s and dr.
fell they live in eastern Tennessee you’re going to feel the chill out there
for you both that live there all right and then my friend other viewer lives
near Cincinnati you’re gonna feel the chill also Ethan be a storm chaser but
one of my favorite front view errs that I’ve known for over three years you’re
gonna see very chilly temperatures up here and
also for Pennsylvania for New York a lot of my viewers that live across this air
you might want to make sure you are definitely prepared also viewers in
Texas and the deep south you’re gonna feel the chill also for Tuesday and
Wednesday and this is gonna continue into Thursday it’s gonna be a prolonged
period you basically have temperatures below
average across New York from Monday all the way through probably Saturday or
Sunday the following week so definitely bundle up if you can all right
so the 6 to 10 day outlook here from the temperature probability forecast
brought to you by NOAA or so-called the store on the Climate Prediction Center
almost spit out Storm Prediction Center but this is the Climate Prediction
Center and I’m gonna circle in an area where I’m most concerned of the
hazardous cold temperatures it’s gonna be this area in red ok that’s a little
too thick let me really circle that so it’s gonna be kind of down across this
area where I’m expecting the coldest the most hazardous cold temperatures in
November that we have ever seen in November that’s my concern here alright
with the 90% threshold of temperatures being below average across Iowa the
portions of the Great Lakes literally across st. Louis Missouri the Arkansas
the Tennessee the Kentucky the Nebraska also for Ohio Indiana Michigan really
cold probably a hundred percent below average that’s maxing out the chances so
a hundred percent below average means you’re going to have temperatures below
average there is no guarantee at all for even at normal temperatures it’s like
saying there is going to be a hundred percent chance for a nor Easter for an
example alright which means it’s going to happen alright so the chances of it
being temperatures in the single digits are really high there for Wisconsin and
for Michigan alright so be sure again I
circled this area once again be sure you do bundle up within this area make sure
you have your heater working make sure you bring your plants their pets and
yourself inside make sure you don’t venture outside for too long because you
can get hypothermia really quickly under these cold temperatures and possibly
frostbite due to the fact we’re gonna have some windchill conditions out there
with the windchill factor probably minus 5 or lower hey if you hate the cold
weather you can go back towards our area in California where our temperatures
locally could be in the mid to upper 70s in fact some low 80s by the weekend so
hey if you hate the single-digit temperatures hey fly back here or uber
back no don’t uber it’s too expensive but hey you get the idea alright so
we’re now gonna look at the air pressure here because remember what happens to
cold air when it’s concentrated well it sinks okay so you got very stable cold
air aloft that’s pushing down ass on the Earth’s surface and that’s why you get
very strong high pressure systems like this so this is for I’m actually gonna
just fast-forward this into Monday morning so due to the fact that we have
air pressure up here literally at 1,000 nearly 50 millibars that is really high
so if you complain about a headache you’re not alone because the air
pressure is gonna be really high above average air pressure readings at the
surface here and this indicates if you kind of draw a line this is where the
coldest air is gonna be right within this surface high pressure system
because again when cold air sinks it’s dense it’s like water essentially and so
when it’s dense you get surface high pressure that develops here and this is
going to be penetrating across much of the East here 1045 millibars that’s
really far above average in fact probably three to five
ours above average and then long-term average so we’re looking at significant
higher than normal air pressure at the surface here and this is going to be for
Tuesday into Wednesday 1040 millibars alright so take that into account it’s
gonna be dry up that are especially probably for the Dakotas I don’t see any
rain or in the knot no no rain I don’t see any snow persuade with this Arctic
high pressure system maybe down towards the deep south there could be
significant ice and snow that can lead to big problems on the roadways and
across the Northeast I’ll talk about that in my second video I’m doing
another back-to-back upload for you all this evening all right so that’s gonna
do with this forecast with the arctic air I you probably will have another
update on this tomorrow afternoon and evening so be sure to stay tuned for
that by subscribing clicking the Bell notification icon and sharing and liking
this with your friends and family it really means a lot and be sure to check
out my discord as there is a limited amount of slots available I’m only
putting out one or maybe five users at a time so could you be one of the people
that are able to get in find out by joining my discord alright see you in
the next video everybody in just a wee bit


22 thoughts on “Record Breaking Huge Arctic Outbreak Likely This Weekend – Update #3”

  • Hi david thanks for the update, If i have to put up with the cold at least it can do is giving me so snow lol. Be safe carolyn from kansas

  • Do you like thunderstorms? We got plenty in Oklahoma tonight. Looks like the front is about to hit my area particularly with a quite high wind event. Everyone is saying all the crazy weather is in the northeast tonight/New England. I looked and radar is clear the active zones were Oklahoma Arkansas Texas Louisiana and Missouri. Some winter stuff for colorado. It just looks like the plains get much worse than the northeast to me. Looks record cold for me. My whole backyard flooded tonight and to boot they said southeast of Tulsa well the exact opposite happened it slammed north of Tulsa its still raining david as i watch your video. Lightning was just insane tonight and some power outages in my area due to lightning. Winds were around 15mph not a factor but 20-40mph is for me tomorrow. Thanks David Brrrrrrrrr tomorrow.

  • I saw something weird on Tropical Tidbits: GFS shows a blob of green hitting the west coast just after mid-month, including Southern California. I almost fell out of my chair. Does GFS think that there will be at least a momentary change in the jet? I believe the ECMWF still shows persistence in the dry air though with continued well above avg temps. According to the National Weather Service offices in San Diego and Los Angeles, they find that the EC models have been more correct as of recently with regard to our weather, so I'm not yet convinced I should look forward to some precip, but it is in the back of the head. Just seeing seasonal temps for once with some increased humidity would be a good consolation prize if it were not going to rain!

  • I live in upper Georgia lake allatoona or 30101 man I'm regular on your channel I followed your last channel still confused what happened and what's going on with weather lol

  • Vashti McRoberts says:

    Great reporting David. Glad you're back in action letting people know what's going on. So far 2019 has been no plant, no Harvest, no fall

  • Thank you so much for keeping us updated and prepared for the fast changing weather situations.Much Love from Tulsa, Oklahoma.

  • Hey David I will be flying into that system from Louisiana to Maryville MO. Even though my aircraft can go up to 23000 feet I have trouble finding favorable winds on Sat for the trip up and Sunday on the trip down. What inside into winds a loft to you have for me ?? I'm thinking staying at 3000 feet for the flight up and 12000 for the flight down…. Help!!!!

  • Extremely Impressive, its so cool!, See this New Album 'Monish Jasbird – Death Blow', channel link , if you like to 🙂

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