[NEWS IN-DEPTH] Analysis on Moon’s New Year’s press conference

[NEWS IN-DEPTH] Analysis on Moon’s New Year’s press conference


now for further discussions were joined
by dr. Pawan gun professor of International Studies at handle global
University welcome to the program thank you so during the presser president moon
said we shouldn’t be too optimistic but we don’t need to be too pessimistic
about North Korea us relations as well as inter-korean relations he said North
Korea takes up an important part of president Trump’s diplomacy taking
positive note of Trump’s birthday letter to Kim jong-un and North Korea’s mention
of Kim jong-un’s good personal feelings about trump that followed your analysis
on current Pyongyang Washington relations as well as inter-korean
relations well I think we should not give up our hope but it is true that the
current situation is very difficult because you see the last year North
Korea they have a Workers Party Planum and they released their the result of
this plenum and also very recently Kim kye-gwan he is the North Koreans Foreign
Affairs adviser he made a statement there are two things very clearly
mentioned the North Korean strategy and policy toward both South Korea and the
United States about South Korea they are saying that they are not going to have
any meaningful exchange unless South Korea change our policy and even he used
very kind of mocking expression that hasty or the cutoff fool who to be
better off if he remained still they start yet started these kind of words
the last year the after April so still they haven’t I mean North Korea hasn’t
changed their position at all and about the United States of course they are not
closed toward to have a dialogue but still they have a very clear conditions
in order to have a resume this talk North United States shoot the accept
North Korean demand unless they are not going to have any kind of meaningful
dialogue with the United States so overall well as we should be not as I
mentioned not to give about hope but is true that we are right now in the very
difficult situation president moon also mentioned that there
is little time left as the US will soon enter its election season in primaries
and caucuses will begin in February do you expect some kind of a progress
between Pyongyang and Washington before February though well I think president
moon jaein is his expectation is right this January February is a very
important month to think about this the United States presidential election
scheduled but well the North Korea they have uh some kind of a long term
confrontational strategy they are saying that the exact word is front row
breakthrough line they introduced after this party plenum I think they have a
kind of a muddling through the contact –ax they are waiting until the end of
November which is the u.s. presidential election because we all know that after
changing the administration which means that we are not sure at this moment the
president Trump or whether he’s going to be related or not but the North Korea
has experienced especially during the George W administration after Clinton’s
administration they have agreement but when the george w bush became a
President of the United States he withdrew and hid the discard the old
agreement so I think North Korea will wait until the end of the day after seat
is reserved the presidential they are going to have a any meaningful agreement
with the United States so about this report of this the Korean workers party
plenum they are clearly measuring this kind of their the position and attitude
they are waiting for this kind of long term and they are not gonna give any
concession to the United States and also South Korea until the end of this year
so North Korea will wait and see until the u.s. presidential election in
November and before it makes a big action so some people including me we
are saying this kind of a muddling through tactics by the North Korea they
are gonna have uh some kind of but there is still possibility to combat the
negotiation table the especially like working-level
but as I told you that they are not gonna reach any kind of agreement with
the United States but at the same time they have a possibility to raise
attention to put pressure on to the United States
now to enter Korean relations during the pressor president moon reaffirmed his
determination to enhance inter-korean relations for peace and he also said
that he will make efforts for sanctions waiver if it is required in order to
boost inter-korean cooperation how do you see that and could it be possible
well I think this is sort of a very difficult job if not impossible because
as far as I know our government has tried the and a several times to put the
pressure and put the effort on to release sanctions especially South
Korean government is closely coordinate and talked about this issue with United
States but I think when you remember that a couple of days ago this US
ambassador to Korea the hair is very clearly mentioned that all this
relationship with inter-korean relationships should go with the new
creation process which means that the essential really is not possible at this
moment unless in the North Korea has the showing there any meaningful
denuclearization step so it’s very difficult to have a got the cooperation
from the United States and also accept Russia and China or the international
community of the Western country and even right Nations they are still pretty
much opposed to release sanction because the North Korea hasn’t taken any
meaningful no natee nuke resistor in that sense it is very difficult at this
moment to talk about the easing decision today president moon also said that
talks are ongoing between Seoul and Washington on their security issues
about the sending of South Korean troops to the Strait of Hormuz as well as on
defense cost-sharing talks now foreign minister kang dong-hee is now in
washington for foreign ministers talks what’s expected from her trip to watch
why after he finished to talk about this is her counterpart the secretary Pompeo
i think there is a possibility that south korea government will finalize the
dispatch of the our korean troops to the strait of hormuz well it’s been known
that the last year last June July if I remember correctly United States has
officially kind of asked to South Korea to send it not just South Korea but to
as well to send the troops to straight Hormuz and this year also the American
ambassador to South Korea the Harris officially to ask South Korea to send in
troops so right now we have a plan I mean South Korea has the government has
planned to send the we already dispatched this the Navy vessel in Gulf
of Aden and we decide to expand the operational range to cover the Hormuz
but important thing is that the United States wanted to participate the their
Guard Union both South Korea will not participate there is a still possibility
but I think South Korean government we are not gonna participate directly the
Guardian that has been led by the United States rather we are going to have a
operation the independently independen independently as the Japanese is doing
so then we will get some kind of I know these kind of agreement with the United
States South Korea’s chief negotiator tonglen boys also in Washington for
talks on defense cost-sharing with his US counterparts would we be able to see
an agreement soon president moon today said that South Korea and the US are now
narrowing their game but at the same time our president mentioned that there
is also still some difference between United States South Korea as far as I
know the United States kind of back up their original at the the demand they
survive billion u.s. dollars which is five times more than the current
cost-sharing which we cannot accept this kind of amount of money but I don’t know
exactly how much they demand at this moment but as I told you the our
president moon as oh they are the representative tone and they saying that
we are closing again hopefully after at least before the end of February we
should have this kind of agreement now aside from export curbs and feud
surrounding G somya where the demun said that seoul-tokyo relations remain
healthy how do you see the current show Tokyo relations
well it is true that the last December finally we I mean South Korea and J
and has a summit in the in China and then both of the leaders decided to
continue to talk about this sensitive issue but President when Jane today also
he said that it is important to have her come up with some kind of agreement in
the forced labor issue he said that that is the starting point of this tea spat
between South Korea and Japan but still this is a very difficult issue because
our president put the emphasize that this our victims should be satisfied the
– divorced the priority but in order to satisfy our victims first Labor’s is
very difficult to get this some kind of agreement at this moment now your
overall assessment of president moon Jane’s presser today and the remaining
challenges during his presidential term well I think a two series selfie so very
we are seeing very turbulent and very unpredictable year especially this
upcoming the presidential election over the United States very important whether
President Trump will continue to about four more here or not make a huge impact
another new South Korea but also all over the world so we have to be very
carefully followed this whole situation at the same time about the North Korea
we have to think about various scenarios including so-called plan B the North
Korea at this moment I don’t think they are gonna cross so-called
red light which means that they are not gonna resume this ICBM intercontinental
ballistic missile or the nuclear test but still we could not exclude this kind
of possibility so we have to think about very scenario and have a very close
cooperation with the United States now before I let you go top nuclear envoys
of South Korea the US will also meet this week for talks North Korea made
clear it won’t engage in talks like we’ve seen in Hanoi unless Washington
changes course and this despite Washington’s proposal for talks to North
Korea through diverse channels in your perspective what do you think is the
best feasible option available to resolve the
nuclear impasse well that’s very difficult question at this moment we are
in the impasse right because North Korea they kind of
demand a very high very difficult one that you know South Korea and also the
United States we couldn’t accept that one they have a precondition so-called
the right to develop and survive which means that include everything they said
that US should give up all the hostile policy against North Korea released
sanction and we should permanently stop this joint military exercise deployment
of the our strategy I said everything they put together unless United States
will give time kind of things first they are not going to come up with this the
the negotiation table which means we have no choice at this moment all right
many thanks to you dr. Park as always for your insights tonight thank you

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