Morning Radio with Phillip and Dave – October 8, 2019

Morning Radio with Phillip and Dave – October 8, 2019


[Phillip] good morning everybody, welcome to
Tuesday. sorry I missed you yesterday, took a little extra day off to visit
some friends, so had a great weekend. I hope you did too, though I left it with
Dave yesterday and it was a little sketchy but a little down day. but we’ll
have to see where we end up today before it’s all said and done. and I want to remind
you though, I think this is really important, we have a Lunch and Learn and
then an After-Work and Learn coming up this week on Thursday, so: After-Work and Learn
Lunch and Learn. All you have to do is call our office at 382 0037 to get registered for that. now what are we going to talk about? well, look if you
are five years out from retirement do you want to run out of money in retirement? I
don’t know anybody that does. so, we have put together a short presentation on
three things that you need to make sure you understand before it happens to you
when it comes to the market, so talk about three things.
short and sweet, call our office to register – 382 0037 – if you are five years out from retirement; or, if you are already retired,
this is even more important for you because of the things I’ve seen happen
in the last market downturn, so hey we’re looking forward to having a great group
there. we got a few spots left for Lunch and Learn, we have a few more- even more
than that for the After-Work and Learn, so- so give us a call and let’s get scheduled
for that. Dave will be with us in just a moment. [Dave] – kind of that – I was referring to a
drip drip drip syndrome yesterday morning at this time. now we just got a
whole pile of stuff: the situation with Syria, Turkey bombing in there and
messing with the Kurds, and us saying we’re going to pull out and almost
nobody seems to agree with that. the Chinese trade talks look like they’re in
a weird state at the moment; at the very least, yesterday the word got out that
they want a piecemeal deal, kind of do it product by product, we’re looking
for the whole deal and now the word is that the Chinese delegation might even
adjourn the talks early. just- it’s that unsettling feeling that nobody feels
good about. [Phillip] well, that’s right, and I think some of that may have leaked out yesterday and
caused some issues and we’re seeing that continue to be an issue this morning,
along with all the other things that we’re getting from the big economic
numbers that are finally starting to trickle in now. [Dave] there’s big economic
numbers to start our month out, which the producer price index we got in this
morning – overall, producer price index- that’s
wholesale inflation in shirtsleeve English- it actually fell by three tenths
of a percent and the core, once you get rid of electives like food and
energy, it was flat and the market was expecting something a little different, I
gather. [Phillip] they were expecting something a lot different Dave. when it comes to the
the regular PPI, they were expected to increase by a tenth of a percent so
that’s a four per- four tenths of a percent missed there. that’s a pretty
significant deal and on the core, they expected it to go up two-tenths of a
percent – it basically didn’t go anywhere so I’m
thinking that’s not a good number, but- but it also gives rise to the
possibility now and gives even more fuel for the Fed to be able to lower interest
rates back down. [Dave] yeah, we chatted about that before we went on the air: you
got two levels of conventional wisdom – one of them is that “okay, fine, inflation
is going nowhere,” that should make the Fed look much more earnestly at the
notion of another interest rate cut. other side of that coin, though, is
anytime an inflation index number – even a single data point – goes negative,
everybody gets really the willies over the concept of deflation which is
legendarily harder to fix than inflation is. so, we might be sai- the fact the
markets haven’t moved positively on that news would tend to indicate that maybe
they’re more- more worried and reactive to the deflation threat than they are
the anticipation of an interest rate cut. [Phillip] or the fact, Dave, that the interest rate
cut may not be enough to offset they’re seeing in those numbers, whether
this deflation or just the fact that we’re getting- inflation is declining so
much, and that all those numbers could possibly affect our GDP number.
[Dave] absolutely; and that we’re expecting – what- when is that due to come out, first look at
the third quarter? that’s certainly going to be about the third week is a month
isn’t it? [Phillip] yeah, I think it’s towards the end of next week, maybe. [Dave] okay. I was- end of
the second, beginning of the third week – generally we start getting the first
blush, and that’s going to mean a lot on a whole lot of different levels because
everything is just – we’re into that unsettled mover: nothing really looks
good and there’s no indication that things have gone negative for us yet, but
still stuff like the trade deal, indications like General Electric
announced that they were freezing pensions for 20,000 workers – which can
always have a domino effect on their pensions – start getting into Boeing
getting in more trouble because now they got one of the pilots unions suing them.
just – it’s one of those days where I really don’t have any good news to share
with anybody. do you? [Phillip] well, that’s true. the other thing I saw – a headline, is it the White House could come
out and basically limit pension funds, both public and private, from investing
dollars into China so that would be a huge deal. [Dave] that’s enough- that’s the thing
that there were some cracks in that armor yesterday: the Trump administration,
it wasn’t a full 180 turn, but now they’re talking again about the notion
of banning Chinese equity, being treated on our exchanges and that sounds like a
nice patriotic thing to do but there’s a boatload of money that’s invested in
Chinese equity through our exchanges and that could be a market mover of the first
order. [Phillip] yeah, absolutely. and so that, I think, definitely is adding fuel to the
fire or seeing today. [Dave] again, we look at a whole bunch of indications and they all-
they all indicate the economy slowing down, but none of them indicate us
entering a recession – *yet*. yesterday, I said if we can continue just this slowdown basis and end up with that soft landing, my feeling would be Paulson
deserves the Nobel Prize for Economics if he can manage this into a
soft landing, wouldn’t you agree? [Phillip] oh, definitely agree, Dave, because you
know – it’s easier to come off of a soft landing and to rebound relatively
quickly and go, you know, from- from basically a slowing economy to a
recession, to back up to back slowing and growing, better than just a quick drop.
[Dave] absolutely, without a doubt. couple of reports you got in from companies kind
of leading off earnings season, I saw the overall results for Domino’s
Pizza and it didn’t look bad but I gather the investment market had a
different thought in mind. [Phillip] well, they actually missed on earnings per share by
two cents a share, and revenue was below the forecast as well. same store sales,
which is one of those key indicators that they like to look at, they missed
the street forecast. also, they’re- you know, their growing competition from
being able to get third-party delivery services is hurting them but my initial
reaction was man, when pizza starts to lose, that’s not a good sign for the
economy. [Dave] that – you got a valid point. I was just looking at the fact that they were
up, which I considered good news in the face of all that competition, but yeah:
they can’t make the numbers on pizza, the world is about to come to an end. [Phillip] so, I’m
not sure what numbers you’re looking at, but I got them- they’re down right now
five percent. [Dave] Lord, no. I was- some of the sales in the sources- [Phillip] those are all
misses. [Dave] yeah, I know. missed the expectation, but in absolute terms at the
very least- [Phillip] I see what you’re saying, yeah. they’re still throwing basis as far as year over year. [Dave] yeah, I just-
that- that basically is what I was saying. okay, fine, they’re coming back – they’re
doing better but nowhere near as good as the market expected. you had another
report out to lead off-season; what you got? [Phillip] I got Helen of Troy, which is the
maker of personal care products. now they did come in and beat pretty good, by a
little over 25 cents a share. revenue was ahead of forecast as well, and and they
raised their full-year guidance, so – both on revenue and earnings, so some good
things happening with them. y’know, Domino’s was down 5%, Helen of Troy is up
five and a quarter this morning. [Dave] good to have some news to had- think you and I
were looking at the calendar, and I think we’re ready to start seeing the big
financials for the fourth quarter earnings season. probably start to see
them toward the end of this week, we’re expecting right? [Phillip] CitiGroup is the first one
reporting on Friday. [Dave] okay! I knew it was toward the end of this week. we talked
about and we were scheduling things out earlier. setting the table again for this
morning: it was a red ink day yesterday on Wall Street, not earth-shakingly so,
but it was a third of a percent and all three of the major indexes – Dow down 95,
Nasdaq down by 26, standard & poor’s down by 13, Nasdaq the third of a percent loser; Standard and Poor’s the big one, down by the better part of a half a
percent. that looks good compared to what we’re looking at this morning, 45 minutes
early, Phillip. how bad is it so far? [Phillip] yeah, it’s pretty red this morning, Dave. we got
the Dow down almost seven tenths of a percent, $180; the S&P 500 down about six
tenths, $18; Nasdaq’s down six tenths at 46 and three quarters, I found this one
interesting – we got small cap 2000 down one percent this morning, so – yeah, we’re
seeing some definitely some movement there which is not a good sign. they- they’ve
seen a pretty rocky road here lately and then we’ve got gold and silver both up.
gold’s up a third of a percent to 15.09 an ounce and we’ve got silver up six
tenths to 17 dollars and sixty-five cents an ounce.
look at this, man – crude oil down almost one and a half percent to $52 a barrel.
[Dave] yeah I’m sure a little under 52, that’s almost promised land level as far as the
price of oil is concerned. overseas world markets by and large, Asia was up at the
close early this morning. there was a tidbit news item that Boris Johnson and
Angela Merkel had a telephone call between Bramb- er, Great Britain and
Germany, and they didn’t get along one tiny little bit. add that to conventional
wisdom coming out in the papers over in England, that there is no
cability of a negotiated exit to Britain, that means that the German markets are
just falling like a rock this morning. England a little bit less but still
solidly red ink over on that side of the pond.
Philip, somebody needs help in terms of stabilizing a retirement and getting
some predictability to what I’m going to have when I retire. I need help, how do I
find you? [Phillip] you know, Dave one of the most important things when people head into
retirement is making sure their money lasts as long as they do in retirement,
and so we have our Lunch and Learn and After-Work and Learn this coming Thursday.
the deadline to register for that is going to be tomorrow morning, so we got a few
spots left for the Lunch and Learn, I’ve got quite a few spots left for the After-
Work and Learn. but look – you need to understand these three key principles to
make sure that your money lasts as long as you do. call our office at 382 0037 to get registered for that event, this Thursday at noon and
at six pm. call and get registered for that, and then join us every weekend for the
Statler financial radio show, 6:00 a.m. and noon on Saturdays, 10 a.m. Sunday
mornings on your sister station, Newstalk 730 AM. [Dave] and back again here tomorrow
morning where hopefully we’ll have more- we’ll have some good news to report on
the national economy at the moment, right? [Phillip] that would that would definitely be nice.
[Dave] it would be nice, and it doesn’t look like we’re gonna have much, based upon
the pre-market numbers does it? [Phillip] no, it doesn’t. [Dave] for you- (cuts off) [Phillip] hey, as we close up,
just want to remind you one more time about the Lunch and Learn and After-Work and
Learn we’re going to have on Thursday this week, so please call our office
before noon tomorrow – 382 0037 – to get
scheduled for that event. we’re going to talk about three key things that you
need to understand to make sure you don’t run out of money in retirement. if
you are five years out from retirement or already retired, this is a very
important little Lunch and Learn we’re doing. so hey, take care I look forward to
speaking to you again tomorrow.

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