Morning Radio with Phillip and Dave – October 14, 2019

Morning Radio with Phillip and Dave – October 14, 2019


[Phillip] hey, good morning everybody. welcome to
today, it’s a great day – Monday, October 14th.
just kind of a reminder: in case you haven’t filed your tax returns yet,
October 15- tomorrow- is the absolute deadline, just kind of a reminder folks.
don’t want to get caught short and and not have filed your tax returns, so hey,
Dave will be with us in just a moment. I’ve some interesting stuff happening in
the trade talks, we’ll talk about all that in just a moment.
[Dave] 8:38 now and 75 degrees, it is Columbus Day – that means the Federal Reserve is
closed, all the banks that are owned by United States based interests also, for
all intents and purposes, closed. to be back today a bank that’s owned out of
Canada, couple of those are open today, but beyond that it’s a relatively quiet
day even though the stock markets are open so let’s check in and find out
what’s going on with them; downtown Sebring is the offices of Statler
Financial Services and Phillip Statler is standing by there. Philip, I was kind
of giggling about the biggest market mover for today’s going to be a look at
the Halloween futures because tootsie roll is going to report and give us
guidance at the end of the day today. we’ll find out how Halloween’s going to
be and, boy, that’s probably the harbinger of a really quiet day, isn’t it it? [Phillip] really
is, you know. there’s just not- we’re at that point in earnings season where
there’s just not a lot going on from from a company standpoint, until tomorrow –
kind of the floodgates start to pinch open just a little bit and with the
banks and then- and then Wednesday, I think we get a lot more. so Tuesday-
Wednesday on the earnings front, we’ll have a lot more; on the economic front, we
just don’t have anything really today, and- and not much really tomorrow or
Wednesday. [Dave] yeah, understood. well you know, they kind of clear out the space for us
during earnings season and don’t dump a lot of economic news, then they closed
the government of the day which nothing goes on and that tends to be the way it
goes. leakage and information that came out over the weekend, though – we had real
euphoria at the end of the week last week over how great the trade deal with
China was going to be, the Dow up by 319 points on Friday, over almost a
percent and a quarter; both Nasdaq and the standard & poor’s
both up over a percent as well. then the weekend comes ,and we find out things
aren’t really as good as we th- as – good is one thing, but not as good as everybody hopes
so we’re not looking quite as cheerful this morning, are we? [Phillip] no, we’re really
not. I thought like this- this- this headline I saw is holding champagne.
you know, it’s what the Chinese media is really saying about the trade talks and
what I find is- is that they- they’re really wanting to come back again and
talk some more before they sign this Phase One deal is what they’re calling
it. some people are calling it really just a temporary band-aid, but it’s going
to deal with kind of the agricultural issues, it’s going to talk about currency
and a little bit towards intellectual property rights, so- so a few things there.
it did say that we wouldn’t do that next 5% increase in tariffs that’s set to
take effect tomorrow, but basically China says “whoa, whoa whoa we’re not quite
ready to sit down and hash it out; we want to talk one more time before we- we
think we’ve got everything agreed to”, and so that’s really what’s affecting the
futures this morning. [Dave] I was going to say, my reaction on Friday – what I saw, the
bits and pieces that we got out of a trade deal we struck with them, it’s not-
it like almost capitulation on our part in exchange for a big agricultural buy –
which, you know, is important, because that’s the single biggest area that they
import from us is our agricultural products. but at Friday’s release of
information, we weren’t even talking about the intellectual property stuff
and that really is the part of the trade relationship with China that
virtually all sides of the political spectrum agree on: they’ve been stealing
our technology and then sending it back to us for money and that honks all of us
off. we didn’t even have that, as I understood it, at the first phase of the
agreement. so now, Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, says he’s going to go over to
China this week and to talk about tying the ribbons on and
doing some tweaking and fine-tuning. this deal ain’t over yet by any measure and
the really hard stuff we just kicked down the road a little bit. [Phillip] yeah that’s
true and so who knows what’s going to come out of it. you know, I was reading
one of the things, says you know, folks don’t trade – you know, the the China talks
because you will be up one minute, down the next minute, based on what what the
president tweets and and what the news media puts out there as far as what’s
happening in the Chinese talks. [Dave] understood. the other thing that’s
affecting us down the line is another trade issue: the brexit thing appears to
be getting closer and closer and closer to a dumpster fire exit for Britain, and
they’re also kind of in a state of flux right now and that helps- that doesn’t
help a bit with our sense of good ease about another major trading partner
going in the other direction, so we’re getting kicked from both sides with
international concerns that are kind of sort of out of control of the CEOs the
companies were actually trading. [Phillip] well, that’s true. I mean, there’s nothing we
can do about geopolitical stuff and- and we’ve been dealing with or trying to
deal with this whole brexit deal now since it came out, and so you know some
people out there would like to just see it get done one way or another, but who
knows what that’s going to look, like you know? we keep thinking it’s going to get
done; they seem to have issues trying to get it done over there and so who really
knows, but but I did see something interesting when it comes to the
European base, Dave, and it’s the World Trade Organization – actually came out in an
article I read and said that they were supportive of the United States tariffs
on some of the European goods that we put on. [Dave] hmm! we actually have
some backing on some of the trade issues on our side of the fence! [Phillip] yeah,
that’s kind of unusual really for the World Trade Organization to support us.
[Dave] that- that we have not exactly been the most popular member of the World Trade
Organization off of that so that’s a bit of a surprise isn’t it? [Phillip] it really is. it’s
so- you know, given there’s not a lot to talk
about today, I thought that was kind of interesting. [Dave] absolutely! and as I said,
we’re looking at upset on both sides. things surprises me as much as anything,
is with all that upset that’s out of the control of the companies we trade, the
interest rate on our bonds is still climbing, meaning that there’s some faith
in equities. we are up like nine basis points on the ten-year Treasury bills
over the weekend. the yield as of this morning on the futures market shows it
up about nine basis points; I’m wondering if that has something to do with the
fact that the real bonds and the real sales can’t happen on Columbus Day
anyway. [Phillip] well it could be, but the other thing I noticed is that- I haven’t really
paid too much attention to it lately- but it is, you know, up quite a bit from where
it was earlier in the month, and in the last month so you know, we were trading
down about one point five six, I think, on the US 10-year Treasury. so up- to be up
to one point seven and some change is a good thing. [Dave] that’s that’s a real sea
change. there were a couple of mornings in which you were saying it dipped below
a buck- it dipped below one point five for a little while in there, and now
we’re talking about a pretty solid one point seven in a little bit. that tends
to indicate a little bit, and I emphasize *a little bit*, more faith in the equities
markets I’d assume. [Phillip] well, I don’t know that I’d assume anything this date and time,
Dave, but that would be what the educated people would think based on what we’re
seeing there, is that because the flight of safety is is not really there, it’s-
it’s people are moving out of that; but the flipside of that, though, is I’ve seen
several articles now that talk about how, you know, we’re seeing a mass move to
money markets out of the equity markets, so maybe they’re not going through the
Treasuries, but they’re going to the money market accounts. [Dave] oh, yeah – why get
1.7 when you can get nothing, right? [Phillip] well, that’s right but maybe it’s because they
can move quicker, I don’t know. [Dave] it might very well be. once again, as mentioned,
it’s a pretty quiet day at Wall Street today because the markets are about the
only financial tools that are open. most of the banks are closed, Federal Reserve
is closed, the government shut down; we aren’t even delivering mail today
because Columbus Day is one of the one of the
official national holidays. setting the table for the morning: Friday, as I
mentioned, we continued euphoria off of the likelihood of a Chinese trade deal.
Dow was up by three hundred and nineteen points, Nasdaq up by over a hundred and
six, Standard & Poor’s was up by over thirty two; it was an absolute good day,
especially turned into a good week off of the Friday efforts because we had an
actual green ink week for a change. 45 minutes before the markets open up
this morning, Philip; we’ve been kind of alluding to it: the bloom’s off the rose,
but it doesn’t look like we’ve had a major sell-off going either, does it? [Phillip] no,
it’s not a major sell-off, but we are down a quarter or a third of a point
pretty much across the board. the Dow is down 75 points, the S&P 500 is down eight,
and the Nasdaq’s down 24; so we’re seeing all pretty much red on that side. and
then when it comes to commodities, gold and silver are both up about 1/2 a
percent, and we got crude oil trading down 2% this morning- 253 dollars and 55
cents, which is a little bit more than where it was Friday when you and I
talked. [Dave] yeah it is, but it looks like we’re trying to establish a new trading
range and a range that you and I wouldn’t find uncomfortable at all. [Phillip] no, we
wouldn’t – that 50 to 55, we’re good with that keeps gas prices about right for us.
[Dave] I think that- I think all the markets are just holding for the Halloween futures
off of the tootsie roll report tonight. that’ll- that’s got to be the thing
that’s getting everybody on hold, don’t you agree? [Phillip] yeah. hey, you know, you know
more about the Halloween stuff than I do. [Dave] (laughs) if they’re buying candy, the world’s got
to be a good place. overseas markets – Asia generally evenly up over the weekend as
a matter of fact, as of the close this morning, both Japan and Hong Kong indexes
up pretty much in the one-percent range. Europe, on the other hand, off of the
upset over the brexit possibly turning into a dumpster fire – their indexes are
all heading down midway through their day. Phillip, somebody needs advice in
order to figure out how to sort this out, because even the educated minds can’t
figure it out. how do I get hold of you for some advice? [Phillip] you know, Dave,
that’s a process – and that process starts with knowing where you are.
if you don’t know the risk in your portfolio, from zero to a hundred, then
you need to give us a call right now at 382 0037,
and schedule your free x-ray review to see how much risk you actually do have
in your portfolio, and then check us out every weekend on the Statler financial
radio show – 6 a.m. and noon on Saturdays, 10 a.m. Sunday mornings on your sister
station, NewsTalk 730 AM. [Dave] and back here tomorrow morning, and since I had so
much fun with it, I’m actually gonna have to dig deep and figure out what Tootsie
Roll did for tomorrow morning. wasn’t what I had in mind, but it was the best I
had. [Phillip] yeah. yeah you gonna have to do some homework now, buddy. [Dave] it isn’t exactly
going to make the headline in a market watch because they’ll have something to
talk about tomorrow. thank you much, sir we’ll see you in the morning, all right?
[Phillip] all right, thanks Dave. [Dave] be well it’s 105.7 Lite fm and Statler Financial Services’
Phillip Statler. (radio) of all the questions- [Phillip] folks, again, I want to thank you for joining us
and remember, you know, if you are five years out from retirement or you are
already retired, it is vitally important that you know what your risk number is,
between zero and a hundred. if you don’t, you need to call our office and schedule
your x-ray review – 382 0037. have a great day, I look
forward to speaking to you again tomorrow.

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