Derren Brown | The Events: How To Win The Lottery FULL EPISODE

Derren Brown | The Events: How To Win The Lottery FULL EPISODE

this show fuses magic suggestions psychology misdirection and showmanship if you watch my show live on Wednesday night you'll have seen me correctly predict the National Lottery tonight I'll show you how I did it [Applause] No [Applause] thank you on Wednesday on Wednesday I was handsome enough to predict Her Majesty's lottery live on television I didn't profit in any way from it as channel 4 didn't allow me to buy a ticket but it's been fantastic reading all the conspiracies and speculations around at the moment lasers writing numbers onto the balls and moving them somehow and split screens and balls of a special LED readouts and impossible sleight of hand but if you missed it here's what it looked like the BBC broadcast the lottery the lottery draw absolutely live 100% live – the second we are doing the same here and when I turn the television on when I'm on how – I'll get a nod in a second when I can do that you can flick back and forward between the BBC and this one to see that we are absolutely live and in sync with the BBC the most you'll get is like a tiny whisker of a delay about a second because we're taking a BBC feed essentially and then passing it through channel 4 to get to you and that takes about a second or so but the BBC allied 100% live the lottery draw is live we are a hundred percent live here I'm being told there's a little bit of a little bit about 30 seconds before we can turn the television on I should say this is the culmination of a year's obsession over this I've had lottery numbers all up over the wall of my house I'm feeling a little bit sick piggies wish me luck and if it goes wrong I said I'm off to five out of the six if it goes wrong or only get a couple or not at all I'm really sorry and I'll apologize about that in advance I'm really sorry but this this hopefully hopefully will work again I've done nothing illegal I've done nothing illegal is there's nothing that will affect your chances of doing this and there'll be a show on Friday at 9 o'clock showing you how I did this as well so you can watch they can find out how we did it and if you like you might want to try the same thing – all right we can turn the TV on we can turn the TV on so this will come on in a second you can flick between the BBC and channel 4 if you want this one a second to see that this is absolutely live and here we go so this is from lottery HQ oh this is so this is still the dream number isn't it okay so this is this is just a little is it this is it this is it there's not that very number we're now into it so yes here we come from the rather shiny lovely studio the BBC's a film lottery HQ they have a glamorous assistant every week to help reset this week's for a master system is MJ board their ears and the jackpot bear hold two thousand two million rather four there's the draw master with the white gloves or the balls now the voice is the voice of our intellicus the vegetables this is an initial production for the BBC and the National Lottery players are braced over twenty three billion plans for the good cause is next is number 35 for the /when skies as well that 180 third time as a main ball and the third to be drawn nor the winds dip it all of us to you'll recall it's one of your chosen few 225th salon-o-matic here's the next one and that is number 28 and they forget matter of every pound spent on the national lottery around twenty eight pence coats for the good cause loops next act number 39 seen over the bus to Saturday nights as well too and fits lot of adding for that one and the sixth one that could make you very rich is right there number two both number joining just last weekend that little beauty an 80th time it's been a main hall the bonus tonight is number 15 so Millionaire's Row me looks like this in a sinus board it doesn't matter the not they're not involving eventual so in order we have power to 11 23 28 35 and 39 those are the lottery numbers for this week to 11 23 28 35 and 39 and ladies and gentlemen my prediction for the lottery numbers this week are 211 23 28 35 39 in numerical order those are the numbers that's a year of my life right there I hope you can see those two 11 23 28 35 and 39 thank you so there are a lot of questions I get frequently asked what am I thinking why are you in my garage and so one question however I would hear more than any other was gone in what the lottery numbers gone then well are they what the lottery numbers not always say shush-shush were suppose to be having sex but having been asked so many times I started thinking about it and I thought to myself how would you go about predicting the lottery so ignoring the bonus pool which is mainly for women in gays how do you predict six random numbers spat out by a machine my chances of correctly guessing at random at the same as anyone else is one in fourteen million which is an interesting statistic if you're a healthy middle-aged man the chances of you dying over the course of the next year are roughly one and a thousand therefore the chances of you dying in any given hour are one in nine million so that means if you're sat at home with your lottery ticket an hour before they do the draw you are more likely to be dead before they announce the numbers than you are to win I needed a better strategy as I saw it there are three ways to predict the lottery one fake a lottery ticket to genuinely predict the numbers and three fix the Machine I disregarded the first option faking a ticket wasn't the same thing it seemed to lack imagination and it would be illegal so maybe there was a way of predicting the numbers this was to lead me down a fascinating path into mathematics superstition and a powerful beautiful secret that can only be achieved when we all put our heads together see you after the break [Applause] [Applause] true on Wednesday night I predicted the lottery today I'll show you how I did it so the question is how do you predict a machine's random outcome I knew I could certainly predict people's random choices so I took that as my starting point be honest put your hands up if you don't like mice put your hands up if you don't like my goods of hand going up the hello come up here for me what's your name what's your name Charlotte lovely to meet you you don't like mice come with me [Applause] Charlotte Peggy Charlotte first of all be honest do you just sort of not like mice very much are you properly Mickey phobic um I don't like them at all well this is the game there are four boxes there's a mouse in one of the boxes I put a mouse in one of them but there are no mice in the other three okay the game is you've got to put your hand into three of the boxes and have a route around through the little holes on this side here but only three and I'm hoping and I presume you are too so the three you put into the three without the mouse and so that you'll miss the one with the mouse in does that make sense yeah that's what I'm hoping what happened I put it into the one that I think you will avoid okay now a couple of things first of all it's very important your choices are entirely random so if you think I'm trying to influence you or if you've already sort of got numbers in your head and ideas you look at now just disregard that's very important you make utterly random decisions as you're doing it and feel free to change your mind as many times you like before you make a decision and also just so you know that I can't somehow move a mouse around from box to box there are these certain numbered cards one two three four and they're all blank on the other side apart from the one that corresponds to the mouse box and that's got a little picture the mouse on the other side of the number just so you know he can't change anything around I'll move it so you begin with a one in four chance of getting the mouse which one you're going to go for one two three or four entirely up to you please make sure it's three are you sure yes okay well this time we're going to play get your hand ready but don't put it in yet it'll ask you to close your eyes and I'm going to reveal what's inside to the audience first alright I don't you're looking you must keep your eyes closed I'd like you to put your hand in keep your eyes closed but I didn't have a feet around make sure a girl washes the corners cause they can hide there's no mouse it's just droppings but there was no mouse mouse in box number three there was no mouse in box number three so congratulations why don't you like that what is it about mice that you don't like my mum made me terrified as a child oh really and now I just don't like the feel or the look or the sediment oh yeah they do okay so you don't have one two and four left we've got a one in three chance which one you're gonna go for next no house to be around them so feel free to change your minds many times you like okay all right so from here for me so that'll be pops num1 so get ready and I'll remove the cloth first nobody else peeking yes close your eyes [Applause] no mouth no mouse in box number one there was no mouse all right you are now however down to the last two box number two and boxed up before sits mainly the way they kind of move around so I like them I think they're fascinating creatures mice I didn't know this mice can live from up to three days and a human interesting so number two or number four I got a 50-50 chance this is the last one which you're gonna go with number two or number four the last one you're gonna put your hand – are you sure yeah strange amount of you might know as Sigma T you're gonna stick Manila – are over 750 1502 the odds are no long when you favor gonna stand here for me okay get ready with your hand boys class good that pinky yeah you can open your eyes there was no mouse in number two I would you like over here would you like to see our little mouses it's quite friendly I'll just come in never look this is perfectly friendly oh there is granite Mary wasn't there is no matter that was no mouse there was no mouse at all however it was important to get you frightened important to get you thinking that there was a mouse there because it's only by getting you into that state that I can make you fall into a predictable pattern which is exactly what you did you did it absolutely brilliantly you left box number four and box number four of course was the mouse box number four [Applause] so well done now with fear comes suggestibility and it's easy for me to manipulate your decisions for you when you're in a heightened state like one of fear but remember this is just my starting point for predicting randomness we're still dealing with people not machines and this is only one in four but heads up the stakes here's an example of predicting human randomness when the odds are 1 in 20 and this time with real jeopardy you got off lightly I want to see how far fear can increase predictability so I've had to call in medical backup for this test our volunteer Matt is about to face something far scarier than to pretend Mouse Matt I'll explain the game there are down there 20 polystyrene cups like this upturned yeah numbered on the top so you've got one two five yeah and then six to ten eleven to fifteen and sixteen to twenty you're gonna go and stamp on 14 out of the 20 so you can leave 6 untouched yeah one of those cups has a knife underneath in fact here's a replica that's what you're avoiding if it goes wrong yeah and you do get a knife through your foot which we both want to avoid then how much money would you demand to stick a knife through your foot to my foot a lace 500,000 500,000 pounds mm yeah yep okay I'm writing out a check for five hundred thousands in case Matt fails my test and requires compensation earlier I placed the knife under a cup whose number I calculated Matt would instinctively avoid if I'm wrong the paramedics get to do more than stand and watch and Matt gets five hundred thousand pounds compensation will be a bit colder to clean your feet to just sterilize that all just need to give you a tetanus all right because I'm sure what's gonna happen predicting maps random choices is a starting point for predicting the random outcome of the lottery you're leaving six untouched okay just ask you one more time if you're happy to do this no is that yeah okay in your own time then there you go that's number one that's two in this game as he stamps all the cups matt has a 70% chance of getting a knife through his foot seven you're halfway through you've only got to do another seven the life a minute got four more three – you've only got to do one more she'll know well done congratulations thank you now these six that are left which is one 12 13 14 and 15 and 18 that's random isn't it those are decisions that you're making is you were terms of you leaving those six days yeah those numbers are I like to think of them as your lucky numbers I don't have to forget the number one 12 13 14 15 and and 18 the reason why I'm drawing attention to those is because of what's written on the back of the check that I gave you when we were up there you've got it Evan you've got the check we still got it on you there shake here yeah people under the envelope if you read out what's on the back I want the camera to get to sit over your shoulders – yeah you will leave 1 12 13 14 15 and 18 1 12 12 13 14 15 and 18 and 1 12 13 14 15 and 18 I'm gonna take this back now because thank you very much I'm just wondering whether you want to carry on because that's quite a lot of money well it's not under 18 you've only got four left to do now that still stands three left got a stamp on two of the final three leaving one cup untouched last long at this point matt has a 50-50 chance of stabbing a knife through his foot sure congratulations again so I have to admit to you the only way that I could do this and know that you'd be safe predict the six that you would not stamp on was to get you into a state of fear that was what that was all about that made you fall into a certain predictable pattern there was no knife under any of the cups all right the injection we gave you was not a tetanus it was just a saline solution which is perfectly safe you're fine you would never have got hurt you wouldn't have got hurt but Jenny would have got hurt I'll show you Jenny look number 13 he wasn't touch Jenny now I wasn't nervous obsolete I've been sitting effing there's a chance I'm gonna get enough room for and then my training in this guy under there but I'm shocked that the numbers the sticks that were left were the numbers right on the back of the check that's pretty math you with us tonight in the audience Thank You Matthew thank you very much okay so thank you so far so good people's rounded decisions can be predicted but I knew that because people can be influenced the question is could a machine be influenced now I thought that was a non-starter and impossible because obviously machines can't think they don't have minds however I then read about an amazing experiment that took place in the 1980s by the pear group the experiment was to see if willpower could affect randomness it involved a Bagatelle board like this and balls were dropped in from the top and the idea is they would randomly drop down it could end up anywhere along the bottom however the scientists had a load of people will the balls to end up on one particular side to try to psychically influence the direction of the balls as they dropped and a curious result emerged marbles did indeed end up on the side that the people were willing them to fall on willpower did seem to make a small but significant difference but I wanted to try the idea for myself could a group of people influence for example the toss of a coin have a look at this can a group of people influence the toss of a coin I got a group together and chose a volunteer he would be trying to throw his chosen combination of three heads or tails if you were to toss a normal coin three times in a row there are eight different possible combinations of heads and tails that you could get up so these are the eight possible combinations you're going to choose one of these for yourself and I'll also choose a combination for me I'll let you choose first so which one do you want your H Triple Eight you're gonna give this one here all right so Marten is gonna go for heads heads heads my lucky one is tails heads heads – I'll go for that one here's what we're gonna do you're going to be tossing a coin if your combination comes up first if head says that is a point to you my combination comes up at tails heads heads then that's a point to me all right so I can't cheat another volunteer is chosen to flip for my team the Reds the rest of the group would make up the red team is to help you support your red team the Reds get dressed up and we'll be cheering in support for their red team [Applause] market however is all on his own accent so red team you know what you're doing it is up to you to make this happen to use your energy and your willpower to make Angela win for a combination to come up more than Martin's they can switch coin at any time for the hundreds in the box to keep it fair so Martin's chosen heads heads heads and Angela is trying to flip tails heads heads this is important Martin and Angela's combinations are exactly as likely to come up as each other there should be no difference they'll take turns tossing the coin until one of their chosen combinations comes up and then that person gets a point the first person to ten wins one point one point the third thing as they're doing this what you guys really focusing on the coin will it in your mind what seems to help is just saying that combination again tells us that just in your mind again in the gap with the red team willing her to win Angela soon scores again and again with the red team behind her there's no stopping Angela it seems that the combined wind power of the red team does have an influence on the toss of the coin [Applause] Martin manages to get one winning combination but with her team behind her Angela steams ahead to ten points you know it was all against me I was just on my own so the fact that I had a team behind me willing me too we enabled me to actually do so so that feels like real evidence for the Bagatelle experiment yes well not quite it does seem like the Bagatelle experiment probably doesn't hold up and as for the coin it's not psychic it's a kind of deep maths and the kind of deep maths that's going to help me with the lottery prediction I'm going to explain how the coin trick works to you so that you can go out place about yourself and win every time here's what you do ask the other person to make their choice first this isn't courtesy it is vital and from what he says you work out what you'll say now you do this by taking the middle one of his three reversing it and putting it at the start so if he says heads heads heads you would take the middle head reverse it to her tails put at the beginning you'll have tails then heads heads and then you ignore the last one you then play just as we have and you'll see you win more times than the other person does and for further information you can go to the channel 4 website on this why does this work why this works will be an hour program in itself but suffice it to say it has nothing to do with willpower or psychic ability it is deep maths but this deep maths finds predictability in randomness just think about that for a second it is taking something as random as a fair toss of a coin and finding predictability in it could I apply that to the lottery for months I live with a year's worth of lottery numbers written up across a wall in my house trying to think of how you could make predictions from randomness and then late one evening I was having a bowl of oxtail soup loved it and a memory of something I'd read hit me in 1906 a scientist called Francis Galton's stumbled across a bizarre phenomenon at a country fair 800 members of the public competed to guess the weight of a prized ox that was on display and the person who got closest one but after it was all over Galton worked out the average guess in other words he added up all the estimations and divided by the number of guesses and the result was the exact weight of the Ox as groups we make far better decisions than experts on their own ever do this real phenomenon with huge implications has been called the wisdom of crowds so keeping an open mind I got a group of people together to try the same theory with the lottery the idea was to have them look at lottery numbers from over the last year and have them guess which ones would come next and then work out the mean average of their guesses if there were a pattern as a group they would unconsciously find it even though none of them would know individually what that pattern was so two Saturdays ago 24 volunteers here there they all studied the chart and wrote down what they thought the next six lottery numbers would be then we wanted to get the average guess for each ball so they're all been asked to bring calculators with them and they added up their guesses for each ball and divide it by 24 the number of people making guesses that make sense we ended up with six numbers and then the group went out and they played those numbers that evening guess how many of the numbers were correct to one it was one it was rubbish so I was ready to ditch the whole idea but then I thought I'd give it one more go this time changing one factor good emotions like greed or the anticipation of winning psychologically get in the way of picking the right numbers does the emotion behind wanting to wait and somehow stop you from winning we all got together to give it another go to avoid the greed factor and hopefully get a better result I asked our 24 volunteers to guess the next six lottery numbers and write them down but we would not do the maths till after the lottery result had been announced again they studied the previous year's worth of draws and went with their instincts what would the next six numbers be everybody writes down what they think the first ball will be so he can add them up and divide by 24 to get the average for ball number one and then we'll do the same with ball number two and so on the front row came up to represent the six balls and they noted everyone's guesses twenty-six then we watched the lottery the moment of truth so everybody else like one now we haven't got the necessary clearance to show you the lottery results that we were watching but look online if you want to check this draws results it was Wednesday the 2nd of September yet seven four to seven thirty five good so you each got a list of numbers for each ball you're gonna add them all up now and divide by 24 which is the number of people in this room so off you go so our six number crunchers were now working out the average of everyone's guesses we waited for the results of the calculations would they match the lottery numbers that have been drawn so Terry will leave us we'll turn around what you have you have number 19 which is not one of the balls even in tonight's lottery another will you please turn around yours 23 was also not in tonight's lottery Sally will you please turn yours around sally has 28 which walls in tonight's lovely arrival balls Rachel you turn yours around 24 no again there is no 24 Neela can you turn yours around please we have 35 that's two out of six and Kevin turn yours around 27 we have three out of six numbers we have three after the first session when we just got one I was really surprised at how they've got three of the stunts that's really exciting I was just really impressed that we got the other three number so it's kind of a good moving forward from from last Saturday maybe it's different now that we've seen the result we got through the ball so now maybe we feel more like a group and we can do it is promising you know I mean now seeing this it's like and they would have literally 110 pounds between the 24 of them so that was a great start but how is I going to predict all six balls I'll tell you after the break [Applause] okay good evening tonight tonight I'm showing you how you can predict the national lottery by taking you through how I did it on Wednesday using the wisdom of crowds phenomenon a group of twenty four volunteers correctly guessed three out of six lottery numbers I brought them back for another session to see if we could get any more right I thought it'd be a good idea for them to get to know each other a little better first so I sent them out for a bit of team bonding our group shared in team-building activities this brought them closer together their individual psychological barriers dropped as they learn to relax in each other's company and this should lead to a better outcome for a lottery prediction it was time to introduce my next technique I'm gonna try something called automatic writing which some of you may have heard of it was a technique used by spiritualists quite a lot when they're supposedly channeling the dead and this is about utterly detaching yourself from what your hand is doing and writing to the point that you're barely even aware of what you're writing I got the group to practice the new method automatic writing has been attributed to the ideomotor effect a psychological phenomenon where people make movements outside of their conscious control which offer a clue as to their deepest feelings and processes the signs were encouraging but one subject Tyler found the technique tricky so I removed him from the test and made him responsible for calculating the group's guesses instead I then set the rest to work predicting the lottery by using automatic writing they were allowed to write minus numbers or numbers larger than 49 in fact anything that came out of their hands get into the title here up on the table please I stand back so that Tyler could interpret the writing and begin the calculations while the lottery begins to play again look online if you want to check this draws results it was Saturday the 5th of September I wrote down the results as the group watched them come up live on the television 22:12 Shane one to six as before the totals for each ball were divided by the number of guesses which in this case was 23 23 equals 63 will the wisdom of crowds phenomenon combined with automatic writing be potent enough to give us a better result this time 42 so we've got one number around the wrong while hey and one number is one off 22 we have one 12 19 if this last one is well what does it come out to so gone it's 5 9 8 / 23 equals 26 Wednesday's all my god okay 36 we got 63 41 we got 42 so those two are those two are wrong but these are correct we got 22 and this even the same order 12 19 and 26 [Applause] can't believe it when I was writing them down and everyone was getting excited it didn't actually clue in at first that we were nailing some of these numbers and to see 20 to 12 90,000 it's not see it was really it's not saying I believe in oh I would never ever expect me to be so excited about it Wow right in a row possibly a coincidence maybe but I was very excited perhaps the key to predicting the lottery lies in the hands of groups of you working together although annoyingly maybe it'll only work when you're not distracted by the possibility of profit we had no more time to practice the next time we would meet would be Wednesday just gone the day of the live lottery prediction after the break all will be revealed [Applause] go Wednesday night these six random numbers came up live in the lottery yet I knew what they would be beforehand but not on my own I had 24 very excited people hoping to predict them for me this is what happened it was the big night this is what was going on around the corner in a secret location the group assembled and studied the chart for the final time so you've had a few minutes already again I had them relax and use automatic writing to come up with the six numbers close your eyes now would the group's collective subconscious the wisdom of the crowd yields the results we were after we didn't want them to know the numbers until the draw so I perform the calculations by averaging out their guesses I took the six correspondingly numbered balls from a box containing all of the numbers and sealed them in an opaque tube the prediction was set off as on that is the lottery prediction okay gotta go gotta round see you bye and it's Wednesday the night of September oh nine nights five of the six lottery numbers these here this is my prediction house a little bit sick we can turn the TV on we can turn the TV on – 11 23 28 35 and 39 and ladies and gentlemen my prediction – 23 28 30 [Applause] [Applause] I can't believe that we just pulled six numbers are in the front of the mate I just completely shocked that artist we saw him do all the wars and Ronan is alive all of us believing that we can do it is what made it happen we've done what needs to be done report six numbers are I think we're brilliant team and I've it's been a pleasure that concludes the tale of how we reached Wednesday night all of my 24 people who were there know what happened and the success they had but it's quite possible that many of you simply won't believe it you may choose not to believe any of what I've told you maybe you still believe it was some sort of super technology whatever you choose to believe is up to you but there's still one route we haven't looked at remember the three options one to fake the ticket two to predict the numbers and they're still option three fix the lottery machine so here's the option three explanation and you can decide which you prefer to fix the lottery I would have to have done the following which of course if I had done I could never admit to so I certainly did not do any of these which would clearly be illegal but if I did which I didn't of course I would have to have done the following firstly get somebody working on the lottery show to act as an inside informant we definitely did not do that secondly because the balls are regularly checked would have needed to have found a window of opportunity when the balls were not going to be checked so that we could do the stunt didn't do that either next we got some special balls made which were identical to lottery balls but would weigh a hundred grams that's exactly 20 grams heavier than the real balls we definitely did not get these made and certainly didn't get the necessary eight sets made next we'd have found out from our informant where the balls were secretly stored in sealed containers that have got access to the containers I'd have had to have hypnotized the security guards my god I certainly don't do that then I'd have added the weighted balls to each of the eight possible sets from which Wednesday's balls were going to be picked and then sealed them back up and on the night the weighted balls that we didn't put in was certainly not picked up and spat out by the machine before any of the others then the day after the lottery we have got our incited to go back and switch the weighted balls out and replace the ordinary ones which he did not do and that's how the lottery was predicted or not it's ridiculous if I had fixed the lottery which I did not and I would have known ages ago what numbers would have come up and the guesses of the 24 people would have been meaningless they could have picked any numbers they liked and I would have just switched their set of balls for the numbers that I knew were going to come up I e the numbers on the heavier balls that I put into the machine but I would never admit to it so if I'm ever asked how I predicted the lottery I'm going to say it was just a trick goodnight [Applause] you


27 thoughts on “Derren Brown | The Events: How To Win The Lottery FULL EPISODE”

  • Claudio Campanella says:

    Derren Brown you are a piece of shit. Not because you performed a trick for entertainment but because you and the production were together to cheat everyone. You don't even have a trick to show the "trick". You are an idiot and an imposter full of shit.

  • 34:25 – "… one stooge subject, Tyler, found the technique tricky, so I removed him from the test and made him responsible for fudging the maths calculating the group's guesses, instead…"

  • Your Own Empire says:

    I'm intrigued.
    Does anyone else want to put a group together to replicate this study?
    I live in the US, so preferably a group who's all going to be focused on the same prize.

  • Anyone that took a basic statistics class will be able to see all the bullshit in this video and can see why Derren Brown himself wasn't proud of this episode. Each number doesn't carry the same weight and you will end up with the majority of your guesses in the middle range of numbers. Opposed to the actual lottery where every number is equally likely to be pulled. If you calculated the average of a group of people picking between a range between 1 and 100, you would end up with the majority of numbers calculated to be around 35 to 65. The only way you would get 1 for example would be if every single person picked 1. If a single person picked any number above 1 the average would increase and not equal to 1 anymore. The same for the opposite side of the spectrum with the number 100.

  • This is complete BS! And Derren knows it. He fooled everyone with camera tricks! Apparently this is the only show that he is not happy about! Good! Because you lied To everyone! Naughty!

  • Why did he walk through the crowd saying no, no , no with his hands up. Is it a English thing? I dont understand

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