BREAKING: Democrats Could Take Senate in 2020

BREAKING: Democrats Could Take Senate in 2020

Okay, I’ve got to start today by revising
a previous analysis that I’ve made. I now believe that it is possible possible,
but it is still going to be an uphill battle for Democrats to take control of the Senate
in 2020 really good post about this on our subreddit from user homie Alex seven and homey. Alex is completely right. The reality has changed. So our analysis has to change. So if you’ve heard me talk about this previously,
I’ve said that there is a very, a real chance of removing Donald Trump from the white house
in 2020 that’s the presidential election that in the house of representatives where Democrats
currently have control, there is a very real chance that Democrats could extend their majority
above and beyond where it is now. But I said that when you look at the Senate
and you look at the seats that are up for reelection in 2020 that it didn’t seem plausible
that Democrats could take control of the Senate. And really we’d be looking at 2022 as the
first serious opportunity where Democrats could take control of the Senate. But the good news, if you want Democrats to
take control is that there are now some specific races that have changed where it is still
an uphill battle, but Democrats can take control of the Senate in 2020 so we’re going to get
into exactly what race is. These are, and we’ll do the analysis and then
really after we do the case by case, the, the race by race analysis as it may be, um,
it’ll be important to do sort of a more overarching step back look at it. Because a lot of times it’s not about individual
races, it’s about the general way that the, the election will go so quickly catching up. There are 100 seats in the Senate, two per
state. There are six year terms in the Senate every
two years. About a third of those hundred seats are up
for election. Next November class two they have classes
one, two and three splitting the hundred seats up into three classes. Class two is up for reelection. That’s 33 seats. And then in addition to those 33 seats, there
are two special elections. One is in Arizona to fill the vacancy left
by the death of Republican Senator John McCain. There is also a special election in Georgia
because a Senator, Johnny Isaacson, who’s also a Republican, is resigning at the end
of this year. So of the total 35 seats that are up in 2020
Republicans have 23 seats to defend and Democrats have 12 seats to defend. Many of the democratic are safe for Democrats,
Massachusetts for example, Oregon is another one. Many of the Republican seats are equally safe
for Republicans like Louisiana and Montana for example. But the balance of power often ends up depending
on a small number of races and there is now a path that is not an outrageous one for Democrats
to take the Senate. So right now, the a hundred and 16th Congress
Republicans have 53 seats. Democrats have 45 plus to independence that
tend to caucus with them. It’s Bernie Sanders and I believe it’s Angus
King. Um, 53 to 47, effectively, Democrats needing
four net seats to take over control, putting them at 51 and Republicans at 49. The other scenario is that if Democrats take
the white house, the vice president becomes the tie-breaking vote in the Senate, meaning
Democrats could have a net gain of three that would make it 50, 50, and then the vice president
who would presumably be a Democrat if Donald Trump is defeated, would become the tie-breaking
vote in the Senate. That’s another scenario. So first things first before we look at what
seats Democrats could take from Republicans, are there any current democratic seats that
could be lost or are likely to be lost to Republicans? And the answer is yes. There are a, the one that comes to mind is
Doug Jones in Alabama right now. This one is likely to be lost to a Republican. Doug Jones defeated Roy Moore, the serial
accused child sex assault or in a special election down in, uh, Alabama at the end of
2017. If indeed Doug Jones is defeated and he could
win, but the polling doesn’t look good for Doug, that would mean Democrats need to take
back five seats in order to net again, a four or a four plus winning the white house to
have the tiebreakers. So are there four or five seats that Democrats
could take from Republicans? And the answer is that yes, they are in no
particular order. Colorado, Colorado is currently held by Republican
Cory Gardner. We have former presidential candidate, a Hickenlooper,
John Hickenlooper who’s running there. He’s up according to the latest poll I found
by 13 points. That’s one seat that is likely to go from
Republicans two Democrats seat number two. This is one of the ones that’s changed recently. Susan Collins, because I believe at least
partially hurt loud support for Supreme court justice. Brett Kavanaugh, Susan Collins in Maine could
be defeated. Now she is losing popularity. She’s still doing well in the Senate polls,
but she could lose. This is one where the ground game is what
will determine what happens, but it’s potentially winnable and it’s more winnable than it’s
been in a long time. Susan Collins has been in that seat since
1997 that’s 22 years and this is probably her most vulnerable reelection campaign yet. That would be seat number two. Number three, Arizona. There’s that special election in Arizona for
John McCain’s seat. Martha McSally was appointed there. She has not won an election. Astronaut Mark Kelly is running against her
in a recent poll. Mark Kelly is plus two over Martha, Mick,
Sally. The prior poll had him even. It’s close, but he’s in it. That would be seat number three. Number four. Now we’re getting a little more speculative. Tom tilling in North Carolina. Uh, this is D, I’m sorry. Tillis this is definitely one that is a bit
more of a stretch. The polling still has Tillis ahead by about
three, but he’s not super popular and RO, uh, North Carolina is a place where we have
seen Republicans move away from approving of the job that Trump is doing more than in
many other places, which means that it could be winnable in North Carolina. That’s four seats and the number five, uh,
is Iowa absolute total lunatic Republican. Joni Ernst is still polling plus two or three
in Iowa. Her popularity is down significantly. She’s cuckoo for cocoa puffs and it is also
potentially winnable. So those are the five homie Alex seven on
our subreddit also points out there are some longer shots. Like if you look at Georgia where the Republican
is only plus five you could look at Texas. John Cornyn is not super popular. I’ve said, what if Beto O’Rourke were to abandon
the race for the presidential nomination because he has no chance and get down to Texas. Could he defeat John Cornyn? So those are a little more speculative, but
this is potentially winnable in 2020 now to be thorough, there’s one other democratic
seat that is not super safe and that’s Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire. The polling is very close. We’ve got to work on that one as well. We have to hope that the incumbent Democrat
will ultimately ultimately pull away. So these races require work. And the important thing to now, if we want
to do a more macro analysis, this is looking at it race by race. The reality is that the general pro or anti
Trump sentiment pro or anti Republican sentiment is likely to have a more general effect, so
it’s not, you know, if Texas ends up being in play, it’s probable that North Carolina
is winnable and Iowa is winnable, et cetera. If Trump’s popularity goes back up, if Republican
attitudes towards Republican incumbents resurge than it’s likely a lot of these will not go
our way. But still, if you want to get involved in
an individual race, all you can do is work that race. And if you live in any of these States, even
if you don’t and you can still phone bank, this one’s going to require work, but 2020
the Senate is winnable


100 thoughts on “BREAKING: Democrats Could Take Senate in 2020”

  • Beto needs to run for Senate. What is he doing? Even if it would be a tough campaign, he'd have a better shot than running for president! A small possibility of becoming a Senator is better than NO possibility of becoming president!

  • Taking the senate in 2020 is not the problem. We either take the senate with a sixty seat majority, or this is all for nothing…โ€ฆโ€ฆโ€ฆโ€ฆ..

  • America if you want turnout you need a progressive populist army and you only have Sanders crew that are primes and ready….the normal dems will turnout anyway….if Sanders gets past the primary his wave will drive a huge blue wave of turnout….dont mess it up america

  • What a joke you are. "If Texas turns out to be in play", made everything you said before that garbage. Believe this dipshit, Texas will not even be close to being in play and only a fool or liar would say otherwise, so which one are you? Is dipshit two words because the editor thing has it underlined?

  • And if it hapoens, they need to make good changes QUICK! If the lives of many improve dramaticalky in those two years (and they roll back gerrymandering and voter supressions) the republicans are done. Until they reallign themselves of course, a one party system would not be the solution ever.

  • High Blue Wave will wash away the Orange Turd!! ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒŠ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒŠ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

  • Wake up America!! Most Republicans suffer from a disease called TBS Trump Bullshit Syndrome. Caused by Drinking too much Kool Aid!! ONLY known cure is ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐ŸŒŠ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐ŸŒŠ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐ŸŒŠ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐ŸŒŠ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐ŸŒŠ

  • Very interesting. Thank you David. Iโ€™m so ready to lose these Republicans in Alaska. Lisa Murkowski is tolerable sometimes, but Sullivan just doesnโ€™t cut it for me. I sure would like to see more Democrats in again.

  • Impeachment will likely be blocked by the Senate, so it might be a play for the Senate. Force a public vote, so the senator is on record. Add to commercial in swing states. Doesn't play well with 'moderates'. (Though it does embolden base).

  • My dark side says…Americans are too stupid to have good government or a decent society. Trump is not the problem. The problem is Republican voters. They will bring us the next Trump…or worse. Basically Americans are the dumbfucks of the modern world.

  • the senate going blue pushes me more into seeing how we can have better representation in congress. #Progressiveness #FlipTheSenate

  • You clowns are going to loose the house are you kidding me?? What policy have the democrats passed? Hating trump is not a winning strategy๐Ÿ˜‚

  • I honeslty feel bad for people who listen to this idiot. His only reason for feeling โ€œin the knowโ€ is because he doesnt like trump. Take Trump out of the equation and the dems have literally done nothing with what little power they have. They have been doing nothing but trying to impeach trump which wont work because hes done nothing impeachable. Whats probably going to happen is Trump is going to win re election and then the dems are going to loose the house because Americans that dont care about trump and just want the government to do effective and helpful things are sick and tired of the do nothing clown party that is the modern day democrat. I would love to see one of you libtards tell me seriously that Trump is going to loose. And then the dems are going to take house and senate lol how delusional can you be??

  • Folks, I' m not gonna lie, we're gonna have to vote a lot of times to pull this one off.
    We have to commit more voter fraud than we've ever done before.

  • Here in Kansas, we have an open seat and we just might be able to win if the GOP is dumb enough to nominate Kris Kobach again. If we can get Brent Welder to run, he will crush any of their plausible nominees.

  • Dug jones is also a weak ass democrate who wants to say I'm not like them crazy liberals. Yeah we need to put blue dogs like that down

  • Beto really should follow Hickenlooper and just run for senate again. Georgia's recent races were a lot closer than they used to be so there's hope there too… Michael Bennet should also run for senate!

  • As it stands now there is a possibility that the Dems could take control, but they'll probably kill each other off before the general election.

  • LOL, yeah, OK. The only way the do nothing Democrats win in 2020 is with voter fraud like they did in 2018. And why do you lefties want to turn this country into Venezuela so bad?

  • I feel like 2020 could be the year to take out Mitch" my wife could go to jail"McConnell if you can find just a half way decent candidate.

  • Honestly, voting for the sole reason of stopping Mitch McConnell from blocking every piece of progressive or moderate legislation Is reason for me enough to vote.

  • Jordan Martirossian says:

    I see Georgia (including the special election) and North Carolina as being very winnable. A lot of work for sure, but the urbanization and changing demographics make them more purple than ever before.
    As a Texan, I can tell you that Cornyn will have a tight race on his hands. Heโ€™ll probably win, but only by 2-4 points.

  • See? Things can change and what seemed very unlikely a few months ago all of a sudden feels like a real possibility. What people predict will happen in politics is usually less set in stone than how it feels. Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump being real and even dominant political forces would've seemed ridiculous just 5 years ago to most people.

  • We need to hold the House and get the Senate so if trump wins re-election with the help of Putin,we'll be able to get his ass then.

  • I don't get why no one mentions Alaska. The clown only got 51% there and he is even on the state by state net approval there with a large drop in net approval from the inauguration (drop of 23 pts) – Source: Morning Consult.

    In addition, the incumbent Dan Sullivan won in 2014 with only 48%.

  • Arvind Talukdar says:

    This is why the the candidate with the best plans doesnโ€™t really matter. You want a dog fighter. Some1 who can shame and threaten the seat of every swing state senate seat. No healthcare plan will be implemented in 2021. You have to create the infrastructure first.

  • Donโ€™t forget to add one more gain in the D/I caucusing with D column if Sanders or Warren wins as they are from states with Republican governors who would replace them with Republicans. This is not meant to discourage people for voting for them, just an FYI.

  • If these are the people running our country, these people need to go to. H… Especially the ones that stormed the on going meeting , they just show how stupid they are, they act and for sure they look stupid and ignorant. Grown men and women and called themselves lawmakers, and these are what we got , so embarrassing !!

  • I'm a fairly new resident in NC, and I'm registered to vote. You can bet I will vote against the Republican Senate incumbent!!

  • Metal Gear Salad says:

    The new two party system is comprised of the Democratic Party and the Radical Trumptard Cult. Where do you want to be?
    Iโ€™ll stick with the founding fathers, constitution, rule of law, and freedom of speech and religion. VOTE BLUE

  • I'm voting Republican Senator Cory Gardner out and Former Colorado Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper in as the second Senator for Colorado. The Republican Party is getting far to crazy and bigoted for my taste. Blame comrade donald for this vote.

  • If we take the Senate, we gotta kick Chuck outta leadership. Dude has no fight in him. My pick for who should take it over: Sanders or Warren, whoever loses the Presidential nomination basically.

  • Watching this from afar in New Zealand, it seems so necessary for the Progressive tide to flow over the mud of Republicanism. I cannot believe how Stone Age the GOP politics are……Shit on you, take all your money, make it real difficult to raise yourself up again. So unbelievably backward thinking and ignorant. McConnell HAS to go, period. I can smell his corruption and overt racism from here and he can take a few of the real "gems" of the GOP too….starting with that complete and utter prat Jim Jordan, who comes across here as an ignorant shabby sycophantic parrot with little or no intelligence whatsoever. Where do these people think they will hide in 2020 when the Blue Wave comes? I feel unbelievably lucky to live in a country where at least the politicians mostly tell the truth, even if it's bad. Make it law for Trump supporters to relinquish their delusion in order to cross state lines and join in with the real world.

  • democrats want to bring in illegals, legalize current illegals, and give them free healthcare, why would any legal american want to do that?

  • TheZeitergeist3 says:

    Iowa seems like a possibility, considering 3/4 of its CDs were won by Dems in 2018 and IA was pretty Blue until recently

  • take the senate not good enough. need 2/3rd to impeach. But if Democrats have house and senate, then the electoral college should fall in line.


  • I think you're underestimating in Kansas. The likely GOP candidate is trailing the Democratic challenger, Barry Grishom, by ten points to replace Pat Roberts, while other potentials only lead over Grissom by 8 points. The GOP has been losing favor in Kansas after Brownback annihilated our economy and both senators showed very much they don't care what Kansan's want after we were incredibly outspoken about not wanting them to vote to confirm DeVos (and both went ahead and voted to confirm anyhow). It's also worth noting we DID put a Democrat in the governor seat this year as well. As well, the margin Trump won in Kansas was small (for Kansas) only 20 points whereas it's often it is 30 or more points (the next lowest was 2008 with a 15% and lower the electoral votes went blue).

  • That would be great. I just don't put much faith in Democrats. They seem to lose it when the get in control. I hope we elect progressive Democrats.

  • I live in Iowa and I don't think Ernst will be re-elected. We need a good contender to run a good race, but even the people I know who openly and proudly voted for her before are no longer supporters and completely lost their enthusiasm for her.

  • Elan Morin Tedronai says:

    Yo, I live in Des Moines, IA, and the people here are rabid for red hats. There were people at the Iowa State Fair wearing pro-KKK shirts.

    Most of my coworkers are conservatives that reject reality. I hear "fake news" and unironic "Thanks Obama"s every day.

    Here's an Example: Friday our HR head (spoiled, old white lady) sat us down. Our employer is a new small business owner (we turned a year old as a company 10/2019) and he wants to get us health insurance. She looked at the most expensive option, told us that there's no way the company could afford to buy us healthcare, it's too expensive, even with company discounts. Then, failing to understand economics, she told us the company can't afford it, so it would be up to us to buy our own healthcare individually. After a brief talking to (a discussion would be back-and-forth), she told us that the most affordable option was probably to get insured through Marketplace (AKA The Affordable Care Act AKA Obamacare). Her and our field manager then went on to say that Obama was stupid and Canadians pay half their income in taxes and hopefully Trump takes care of it during his second term.

    I don't unequivocally defend blue hats for the sake of railing against red hats, as Conservatives mime, so they didn't understand that attacking Obama wasn't an attack on me, and lo, I wasn't the biggest fan of Barack, but I did muse that they walked away from that meeting thinking they had won some sort of partisan victory when in reality, they just admitted they couldn't crunching the numbers and Obamacare was our best option.

  • Given what happened in the mid terms, I see a huge win for democrats in the Senate. Too many republican seats have to be defended and people are sick of the current administration.

  • Democrats like to complain about Republican policy and politicians, but too few of us are willing to do the absolute least and actually vote.

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